According to the latest forecast made by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), nuclear power's global expansion is expected to continue in the coming years, though at a slower pace, owing to competition from low fossil fuel prices and from renewable energy sources.
Nuclear developments will continue though at a slower pace than before the Fukushima accident in 2011. Nuclear power generating capacity is now projected to grow by between 1.9% and 56% by 2030, compared with the previous estimate of between 2.4% and 68% from last year. Projections from 2030 to 2050 involve greater degrees of uncertainty.
By 2030, global nuclear capacity should increase to between 390 GW (low-case scenario) and 598 GW (high-case scenario), from 383 GW in 2015.
This growth should be spurred by the Far East (especially China and South Korea), where nuclear capacities should soar from the current 94 GW to 132-216 GW by 2030. Capacities should also grow in the Middle-East - South Asia region (mainly in India), from the current 6.9 GW to 28 - 18 GW by 2030.
In Eastern Europe (including Russia), capacities should also develop rapidly: seven reactors are under construction in Russia and Belarus is building its first two reactors; consequently, installed capacity in this region should reach 50-76 GW by 2030, from the current 50 GW.
Nuclear capacities should decline in Western Europe due to the German phase out, decreasing from 112 GW to 77 GW by 2030 (low case); or stabilize in the high case. They could also contract in North America, from the current 112 GW to 92 GW by 2030 (low case).
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